Random Crap

16-5 in PEs this week. Of my losses I remember four. Of those two I couldn't win due to opponent having the ultimate nuts in two games and mana screw in all three games the other match. Two I punted on mechanics. One was misclick for one point of mana burn ftl. Other was screw up combat when opponent had creature with First Strike and Wither. Both mistakes were small but cost me a game in matches that went to three.

I'm 99% sure I wouldn't make those mistakes again especially playing paper magic. This makes me with I had decided to make the effort and goto GP Indy this weekend. Without those dumb losses I'd have been 18-3 which is absurd as shit (and my account would have 18-53 more packs).

Anyways, been updating my paper EDH decks and starting to post my lists check them out here. EDH is pretty much the best thing ever. Time Stretch->Relearn->Sins of the Past=Win. Had a game yesterday where opponent played Myonsynth Lattice. In response to my Time Stretch he Hurkyl's Recalled me. I floated four mana and Memory Plundered his Recall bouncing his board. I then only managed to take five turns in a row and could not build back up to a great enough level. Slivers killed us both... (I was on two most of that game.)

Might play another sealed today, might not. Going to FNM tonight and plan on playing in the sealed event but if I can find someone to playtest block with me I'd do that. Didn't sleep last night and have to drive upto PA tomorrow so I think I'll pass out right after FNM.

Played a few games on MODO with 5c control. Most were in TP room and useless. A parade of awful 5c decks and then bad aggro and midrange decks. Now if you thought the decks were bad you should have seen the people playing them. Hint: side Nameless Inversion out versus fucking control decks!! Did play some mirror games versus a friend, was kicking his ass but that was not many games. Still need like a 1/3rd of the deck for tomorrow but I'm not too worried about that. Could always fall back on the deck I have and know how to play, Faeries. Also have like 65 cards out of Kithin so that is also an option.

Oh lets do some math. I think I might not Ponder in block Faeries. The best reason to run Ponder is for the turn two Bitterblossom. This much is clear. Now how does this work out in reality? First we have to assume no Bitterblossom is in hand. I will also do all of this off seven card hands on the play. Last assumption is that we are trying to get Bitterblossom, if we don't see it we'll take a random card.

53 cards left in deck, four are Bitterblossoms. 7.547% of those cards are Bitterblossom. You see three off Ponder giving you a 22.641% chance of finding one. Miss it? Shuffle and see one more, again 7.547% chance. So if you always shuffle with Ponder you have a 31.2% chance of seeing a Bitterblossom off your turn one Ponder. Now this does not include the card you draw turn two. If you found Bitterblossom this doesn't matter. If you didn't you draw a random Ponder card then see one more off the top on turn two. This last card is four in 52 or 7.692% so your total chance is 38.9% to find it off Ponder.

Oh by the way, that 39% or so is for hands with Ponder but no Bitterblossom. Add to that the fact that Bitterblossom on turn two is not amazing versus Kithkin and you might see why I'm unimpressed. Run 0 Ponder, 25 land, and lots of good spells.

Told ya this was going to be random...